How Intense Will Storms Get? New Model Helps Answer Question

How Intense Will Storms Get? New Model Helps Answer Question

ScienceDaily (July 9, 2008) — A new mathematical model indicates that dust devils, water spouts, tornadoes, hurricanes and cyclones are all born of the same mechanism and will intensify as climate change warms the Earth's surface.

The new equation, developed by University of Michigan atmospheric and planetary scientist Nilton Renno, could allow scientists to more accurately calculate the maximum expected intensity of a spiraling storm based on the depth of the troposphere and the temperature and humidity of the air in the storm's path. The troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere.

This equation improves upon current methods, Renno says, because it takes into account the energy feeding the storm system and the full measure of friction slowing it down. Current thermodynamic models make assumptions about these variables, rather than include actual quantities.

"This model allows us to relate changes in storms' intensity to environmental conditions," Renno said. "It shows us that climate change could lead to increases in how efficient convective vortices are and how much energy they transform into wind. Fueled by warmer and moister air, there will be stronger and deeper storms in the future that reach higher into the atmosphere."

Renno and research scientist Natalia Andronova used the model to quantify how intense they expect storms to get based on current climate predictions. For every 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit that the Earth's surface temperature warms, the intensity of storms could increase by at least a few percent, the scientists say. For an intense storm, that could translate into a 10 percent increase in destructive power.

Renno's model is what scientists call a "generalization" of Daniel Bernoulli's 18th-century equation that explains how airplane flight is possible. Bernoulli's equation basically says that as wind speed increases, air pressure decreases. It leaves out variables that were considered difficult to deal with such as friction and energy sources (which, in the case of a whirling storm, is warm air and condensation of water vapor.) And in certain idealized situations, omitting that information works fine.

But by including these additional variables, Renno was able to broaden Bernoulli's equation to apply it to more general phenomena such as atmospheric vortices.

"The laws of physics are generally very simple," Renno said. "When you make assumptions, you are not representing the simple, basic law anymore. If you don't make assumptions, your equations have those simple, basic laws in them. It gets a little more complicated to get to the solution, but you don't introduce error, and you answer is more elegant, more simple."

Renno's work bolsters studies by others who say hurricanes have grown stronger over the past 50 years as sea surface temperatures have risen. This effect has not been extreme enough for humans to notice without looking, scientists say. Hurricane Katrina and Cyclone Nargis were not the most intense storm to hit land in the past half century. Other factors contributed to the devastation they caused.

This new model helps explain the formation of spiral bands and wall clouds, the first clouds that descend during a tornado. It's clear now that they are the result of a pressure drop where the airspeed has increased.

Renno says unifying convective vortices from dust devils to cyclones will help scientists better understand them.

"This is the first thermodynamic model that unifies all these vortices," he said. "When you unify them, you can see the big picture and you can really understand what makes them form and change."

A co-investigator on NASA's Mars Phoenix Lander mission, Renno has used his new model to calculate the intensity of dust storms in Mars' polar regions. He found that at the Phoenix landing site dust storms can have winds in excess of 200 mph.

Renno is an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences. Andronova is a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences.

WEATHER NOTE

Spotting Storms?

This is from a Wisconsin storm spotter/chaser on June 27, 2008. Talk about an unusual radar target!

"My bother called from Antigo to say he has been watching three triangular shaped UFO's flying a little north of Antigo the past hour. I don't have time to look outside but check out this radar loop from Green Bay.."

You never know......

World weather expert says El Nino, La Nina outlook mild

The World Meteorological Organisation said Tuesday that 2008 was proving a year of respite from natural climatic phenomena identified by scientists as causing havoc with weather patterns.

The effects of El Nino and La Nina, respectively the warming and related cooling of Pacific sea surface temperatures, are felt in many parts of the globe, and have been blamed for a lengthy drought in Australia, flooding in the Horn of Africa and Bolivia, and more severe winter monsoons in South Asia in 2006-2007.

However, WMO official Rupa Kumar Kroll said that effects over the coming months are expected to be mild.

"Near neutral conditions are considered the most likely outcome for the middle part of the year and shortly thereafter," Kroll said, adding that La Nina "gradually weakened from its peak strength in February."

"Rapid development of El Nino or re-development of La Nina is not considered likely for the middle part of the year," he said.

The expert nevertheless cautioned that other factors which also influence seasonal climatic patterns could still trigger extreme weather conditions.

MARITIME NOTE

Riverdance ferry contractors praised after Cleveleys clear up

The contractors charged with cutting up the stricken Riverdance ferry have been praised for their work in keeping the beach clear of oil.

Nearly all of the oil has now been removed from the ship by Hancock’s Contractors Ltd and sub-contractor PGC Demolition Ltd, and the firms have been congratulated for their work.

Hugh Shaw, the secretary of state's representative for the operation, said: “The progress that has been made during the operation has been excellent and we are delighted that the beach has been kept free of oil.

“The contractors have gone to a great effort on the environmental side of things and they deserve full credit for that.”

Work is set to start soon on the removal of the engine and the remaining fuel tanks from the vessel, which ran aground just south of Cleveleys on January 31.

Cruise West already under Coast Guard watch
FLEET OPERATOR: Ships are being inspected and crew members questioned.

By JAMES HALPIN

The number of mishaps aboard Cruise West vessels so far this season has landed the company on a special program to review the ships' safety and maintenance procedures, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

Seattle-based Cruise West ships have so far suffered three mechanical failures and two groundings, including the most recent that took place Monday morning when the Spirit of Glacier Bay ran aground in Tarr Inlet near its namesake bay.

The Coast Guard began talking to the company about the trend after its ships suffered the second mechanical failure of the season, said Capt. Scott Robert, Coast Guard sector Juneau commander.

Mechanical problems are common on ships, and the Coast Guard in Alaska responds to hundreds of such calls each season, he said. But the number specifically on Cruise West ships this season prompted the extra attention, he said.

"After the third mechanical failure and the (first) grounding is when we started to take a very proactive approach on looking at the safety systems on board those vessels," Robert said. "These safety stand-downs are above and beyond what we, the Coast Guard, typically do with this industry."

The Coast Guard frequently holds surprise spot inspections and evaluates vessels at the beginning of the season, Robert said. The "safety stand-downs" are an added layer of oversight to promote safety and prevent serious accidents, he said.

As part of the plan, all of Cruise West's ships are being inspected by Coast Guard personnel, who are examining safety plans, equipment and maintenance policies, Robert said. The boardings also entail talking to crew members to improve their awareness of safety conditions, he said.

Cruise West officials are working in partnership, with its vice president "actively participating" in the stand-downs, Robert said. The boardings are scheduled in advance and take about two or three hours on average, he said. They are being held wherever the ships are -- in Alaska and elsewhere.

"This is a Coast Guard-wide issue," Robert said. "This is a combined, overarching look (at) Cruise West across the entire Coast Guard."

The agency plans to continue with the stand-downs until it is convinced Cruise West vessels are being operated and maintained safely, Robert said.

Jerrol Golden, spokeswoman for Cruise West, which operates nine small cruise ships, would not comment on the Coast Guard program, though she said safety is a top priority for the company. She stressed none of the incidents this season involved any injuries.

"Each incident is different, and there's definitely lessons learned immediately," she said. "There's no doubt the management system is under review by us, for sure."

She would not elaborate.

Have a really great weekend!

RS

Don't take chances when thunderstorms or tornadoes hit in the summer

Don't take chances when thunderstorms or tornadoes hit in the summer

Summer weather conditions such as thunderstorms and tornadoes can catch people off guard and be very dangerous.

If the weather is fair, many of us will be outside today. We'll enjoy the company of friends and family, perhaps watch a parade with a child, grill some hamburgers or light up a sparkler to celebrate the holiday.

While we revel in spending long days outside at this time of year, it's important to maintain awareness of the potential for danger from summer storms, particularly those that occur with little warning.

Many people fear major storm events, such as hurricanes, and take significant steps to prepare for them. Readiness in the event of an approaching storm is key to surviving the storm and minimizing damage, according to experts. And, because hurricanes occur over a period of time, they can be tracked and their paths predicted, giving those in their paths time to take the necessary precautions.

Thunderstorms and tornadoes, however, are more challenging to prepare for because they're often unpredictable and catch people off guard.

"The larger the storm, the easier it is to predict," said John Frye, a meteorologist who will join the geography department at Kutztown University for the fall term as an assistant professor. "Hurricanes last days to weeks, but thunderstorms can last only a few hours, and tornadoes only minutes. That makes it difficult to say where they'll occur. We're good at predicting that they will occur, but it's difficult to say exactly where."

According to the National Weather Service, an average of 100,000 thunderstorms occur throughout the United States every year, along with 5,000 floods and 1,000 tornadoes. Potential dangers of those storms, of course, include lightning, hail, high winds and dangerous waters.

Lightning is a major concern in thunderstorms, Frye said, and everyone, including children, should be aware of its potential danger.

"There's definitely a possibility that you could be hurt or suffer fatal injury," Frye said.

Pennsylvania ranks third among the 50 states in the most combined deaths and injuries caused by lightning, according to the National Weather Service. Only Florida and Michigan had more lightning-related deaths and injuries.

And, Frye said, a thunderstorm doesn't have to be right on top of you before lightning becomes a threat.

"If you can hear thunder, you're in the danger range of being struck by lightning," he said.

Frye cited the National Weather Service's "30-30 Rule," which advises people to get inside when there is 30 seconds between a lightning flash and the following clap of thunder, and not go back outside until 30 minutes after the last clap of thunder.

"That's good advice," Frye said. "You don't want to take chances in a thunderstorm."

The National Weather Service issues watches and warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. A watch, explained Frye, is when atmospheric conditions are favorable for storms of these types and the area in which they're likely to occur has been identified. A warning, he said, is when a storm has been identified by trained spotters or radar, and is in progress.

WEATHER NOTE

'Weather Geek' Runs Hurricane Center

MIAMI - MIAMI - When hurricanes and tropical storms threaten the United States, a self-described "weather geek" will let the nation know what the dangers are.

National Hurricane Center director Bill Read marked a small milestone Monday. He's one month into the Atlantic hurricane season, with five more to go.

So far, there has been only Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started on June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula. Ahead, however, are typically the season's busiest months, August and September.

With things quiet so far, the center has had more time to adjust to Read, who took over after the contentious departure of his predecessor, Bill Proenza, who was on the job only six months before he was placed on leave last July. The center's staff urged his dismissal, saying he exaggerated problems with a satellite and undermined forecasters.

Read said when he took over that he was a little more laid back than Proenza. His hurricane kit contains "Ritz crackers and peanut butter." His son's cell phone plays The Doors' song "Riders on the Storm" when he calls.

Like other center directors, however, Read said he expects to spend a lot of time talking about hurricane preparedness, including how to secure homes against storms, urging families to create a storm plan and encouraging people to have sufficient hurricane supplies.

"It just drives me nuts that we haven't solved that problem," Read said in describing the challenge of getting people to prepare.

In particular, Read said he wants to try to understand why some people or neighborhoods evacuate and others do not. Then, he wants to tailor his message to individual communities. In places like New Jersey, which hasn't had a hurricane make landfall since 1903, there should be a different way of talking about preparedness than in places that have seen hurricanes more frequently, he said.

"The one pamphlet response to hurricane preparedness is not going to work," Read said.

Born in South Weymouth, Mass., and raised in Delaware, Read said he knew he loved weather early on: He would press his face up against the windows of his house to watch snow fall.

He went to Texas A&M to study meteorology and then was drafted into the military. He served as a meteorologist flying aboard Navy hurricane hunter aircraft for two seasons. Though at the time he had been on only a handful of airline flights, it was his job to control the plane's path through the storm at low altitudes of 500 or 1,500 feet.

"I think I gave religion to a lot of people," he said.

After finishing with the Navy and returning to Texas A&M for a master's degree, Read joined the National Weather Service in 1977. He served in several posts before being chosen to lead the weather service's Houston-Galveston office in 1992. He held that job until moving to Miami and the National Hurricane Center.

If his job in Texas was like a steak dinner, heading the National Hurricane Center was the "extra piece of key lime pie afterwards: not expected but enjoyed nonetheless," Read said.

People who know him say he is well equipped to deal with the job's pressures.

Paul J. Croft, a meteorology professor at Kean University in New Jersey, succeeded Read in 2004 as president of the National Weather Association. Read always tells people what he does and does not know, Croft said.

"He's always been one to give it to you straight," Croft said.

Read, meanwhile, said he's already gotten advice from Max Mayfield, the former center director who held the job from 2000 to 2007. Mayfield told him if he stayed on the job more than five years his gray hair would turn white. Read said he would stay until "it's no longer fun.

MARITIME NOTE

Maritime safety not a priority in RP; Coast Guard struggles to stay afloat

What is considered to be the biggest maritime disaster in the world happened on Philippine waters — the 1987 collision between passenger ship MV Doña Paz and oil tanker MT Vector. Post-tragedy reports revealed the dead numbered as many as 4,000, although the official death toll was at 1,856.

The country’s 36,289-kilometer coastline, one of the longest in the world, is being safeguarded by an insufficient number of vessels and aircraft of the Philippine Coast Guard. Worse, 40 percent of these are not operational.

Communication among Coast Guard units is mainly by cellular phone — through text messaging instead of voice calls — supplemented by a limited number of radios.

The agency has yet to experience the fruits of the various foreign-funded projects, but in at least two of these projects — the Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) and Maritime Safety Improvement Project Phase III (MSIP-III) — the Commission on Audit bewailed the loss of millions of pesos in wasted funds.

The Coast Guard itself, on its website, has no illusions about its Herculean task: “The enormous task to perform the multifarious functions of safeguarding the country’s vital sea-lanes from maritime lawlessness, preserving its marine resources and promoting Safety of Life and Property at Sea with its limited resources.”

‘ Not ready for sea’

Data from the Coast Guard Action Center show that the agency has 59 vessels and five aircraft, 40 percent of which are either “Not Ready For Sea” or grounded as of July 1.

The United States Coast Guard says a “Not Ready for Sea” evaluation means Coast Guard inspectors identified mechanical, structural, or safety deficiencies serious enough to render the boat not fully capable of performing search and rescue missions.

“We don’t even have an all-weather vessel na kahit bumabagyo pwedeng gamitin,” said Coast Guard spokesperson Lt. Commander Armand Balilo. An average of 19 tropical cyclones pass the Philippine area of responsibility every year.

Of the 14 vessels, six are “not ready for sea” (NRFS) including the search and rescue vessels BRP (Barko ng Republika ng Pilipinas) Edsa II and BRP San Juan; auxiliary escorts BRP Corregidor, BRP Kalinga and BRP Limasawa; and patrol gunboat BRP Palawan.

BRP San Juan, BRP Edsa II and BRP Corregidor are on dry dock. BRP Kalinga and BRP Limasawa are undergoing repairs, while BRP Palawan is undergoing engine repair.

The Coast Guard has five aircrafts, but two of these are grounded — the Helo 163 and Cessna 1242.

Of the 31 small craft assigned to the 10 Coast Guard district headquarters, 14 are NRFS.

• All but one of the nine Diesel Fast vessels at the Maritime Security and Law Enforcement Command are NRFS.

• Of the 11 small craft in the Coast Guard District of National Capital Region-Central Luzon, two are NRFS.

• All two small vessels assigned to the Coast Guard District of Central Eastern Visayas in Cebu are NRFS.

• The two Diesel Fast vessels in Southwestern Mindanao, based in Zamboanga City, are ready for sea; each of the DF vessels in the Coast Guard Districts of Palawan and Southern Tagalog are RFS.

• One of the three DF vessels in Western Visayas, based in Iloilo, is NRFS.

• In the Coast Guard District of Southeastern Mindanao, based in Davao, one of the two DFs is NRFS.

• There are no recorded small craft in the Coast Guard Districts of Northern Luzon, Bicol and Northern Mindanao

The Coast Guard is also “borrowing” 14 monitoring, control and surveillance vessels from the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources. Of these, three are NRFS.

‘Txt lang’

For communication, Coast Guard personnel depend on the ubiquitous cell phone. In many instances, messages are sent through text messaging, said Lt. Commander Daniel Inri Gayosa, head of the Coast Guard Weapons, Communications, Electronics and Information System Command.

Gayosa said the Coast Guard headquarters has distributed cellular phones among the staff manning its 53 stations and more than 200 detachments nationwide. Each cell phone receives a minimum prepaid allowance of P500.

“Siyempre, kulang yung load. Kaya presently nagre-rely na lang sa text e,” Gayosa said.

Apart from cell phones, the stations are also equipped with HF (high frequency) and VHF (very high frequency) radios. But Gayosa said not all remotely located detachments have radios.

A recent GMA News television report noted that only one radio is working in the operations center of the Coast Guard headquarters in Manila.

Gayosa said the agency’s current inventory of communication equipment is mainly used for administrative communication such as receiving reports from the various units.

“Almost 100 percent — 98 percent — of (the 53) stations have VHF radios pero sa mga detachment, ang conservative estimate 30 percent lang,” he said.
“Supposedly, dahil sa remote location ng mga detachment, dapat at least may HF sila. But not all has one.”

VHF radios are intended mainly for short-range communications. VHF radio signals operate in “line of sight“ fashion, generally five to 10 miles. To communicate at longer ranges, MF (medium frequency)/HF radios are needed.

Still, Gayosa noted that troubled ships with HF equipment usually call first their parent companies, who will then inform them of the situation.

GMDSS

Maritime communications should have improved had the Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) pushed through.

GMDSS, a system initiated by the International Maritime Organization, was designed to enhance ship-to-shore communications and provide rapid automated distress alerting through shore-based facilities for Maritime Search and Rescue Communication Stations in 19 sites nationwide.

The contract to procure equipment amounting to almost P300 million was entered into between the DOTC and French company Thomson CSF NCS-France (later renamed Thales) in 1998. According to the National Economic and Development Authority and the Mindanao Economic Development Council, the project was funded by the French government.

The 2006 Commission on Audit report on DOTC said the contractor abandoned the project in July 2000 “due to a billing dispute” and after more than five years of negotiations between the parties, the termination agreement has yet to be finalized.

In a separate audit report in 2003, COA — citing the GMDSS Project Management Office — noted that out of the P295,854,823.62 worth of delivered equipment, 71.99 percent or P212,981,302.93 was not installed by the contractor.

“The container vans containing the uninstalled equipment located at various project sites are now in the state of deterioration due to long exposure to open environment while the facilities installed in the completed stations are now beginning to deteriorate due to lack of maintenance. Likewise, the unfinished stations/buildings are in danger of imminent collapse and may pose hazard to the public and nearby structures,” the COA report said.

“It is worthy to mention that the Department had already expended so much for the above projects and yet no significant progress/development was reported. Such costs and other resources would be wasted and the benefits that could have been derived from the projects could no longer be achieved if the installation of the equipment would not be completed,” it added.

Gayosa said the Coast Guard, as end user of the project, is not allowed to use the equipment until those were formally turned over.

But Gayosa said the Coast Guard is expecting next week the arrival of communications equipment from the Japanese grant-aid project Enhancement of Communications System for Maritime Safety and Security.

A Japanese Embassy press release said the 609-million yen project, signed in 2007, aims to establish satellite communications system in 11 stations nationwide, connecting the Coast Guard headquarters and its district offices, “to improve and enhance the PCG’s capability for search and rescue as well as counter-terrorism.”

Twenty-four stations, under the Manila, Cebu and Zamboanga District Offices, will also be equipped with VHF/HF Radio System. Six Metro Manila stations will be equipped with Microwave Communications System in and three stations of the Manila coast will be rehabilitated and upgraded.

ODA loan projects

Data from the 2008 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing show that the Department of Transportation and Communications is the implementing agency of at least 14 ODA-funded maritime projects.

Based on data from the Department of Budget and Management, the government is already paying for these projects.

The loans include two French Protocol loans on global maritime safety and five Japan Bank for International Cooperation/Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund (JBIC/OECF) on maritime communication and safety improvement projects.

JBIC’s Maritime Safety Improvement Project (MSIP) is a 3,516-million yen loan for the emergency rehabilitation of navigational aid facilities — 37 lighthouses and light beacons — in the Manila-Cebu sea road and training required for the operation and maintenance of these facilities.

MSIP-2 is a 5,579-million yen loan that also sought the installation and rehabilitation of navigational aid facilities such as lighthouses.

JBIC’s Maritime Communication Project is a 2,633 million-yen loan amount seeking to ensure efficient and reliable maritime communication services by constructing a Manila Central Coast Station consisting of a transmitting station, receiving station and operation center and a Manila Port Station.

It would install maritime radio communication equipment for these stations as well as training equipment and UHF link from the Operation Center to Pagasa and Philippine Ports Authority.

Spain — through Bancaja, one of its largest banks, and Instituto de Credito Oficial (ICO), a lending unit — extended loans for an oceanographic research vessel, MSIP-3 and MSIP-3-1.

New Zealand Banking Group Limited-Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (ANZ-EFIC) provided loans for research and rescue vessels.

The government is still paying for all these loans.

But it appears that the Coast Guard has yet to reap the fruits of these projects.

Defective lighthouses

How these projects will be implemented is another story.

In the 2004 audit of the DOTC, COA said 13 lighthouses — worth close to P52 million — under the first and second batches of the Maritime Safety Improvement Project Phase III (MSIP-III) were defective.

Lighthouses provide navigational safety at sea.

The Mindanao Economic Development Council website said MSIP-3, a Spanish ODA project, involves the acquisition of two maritime accident response vessels and construction of marine accident response and support base in Cebu City. It also includes the construction and rehabilitation of 120 lighthouses nationwide.

Findings of COA technical staff in 2004 on inspection of a total of 13 lighthouses — seven from the first batch and six from the second batch — showed that the light stations “may only be useful for a short period since the defective marine aids-to-navigation equipment may easily cause the light stations to be non-operational.”

Nine of the 13 light stations were already not functioning at the time of inspection although they were accepted only last April 2002 and January 2003.

“For the 13 light stations alone, the government had expended the amounts of US$1,089,400 or equivalent to P43,576,000.00 for the defective equipment and P8,345,528.43 for the cost of civil works which may be considered useless due to non-functional/non-operational light stations,” the report said.

La Maquinista Valencia, S.A. bagged the US$13,798,888 contract for the supply and delivery of the marine aids-to-navigation equipment. C.T. Leoncio Construction and Trading and Atlantic Erectors Inc. won the contract for the construction of foundation, erection of towers, installation of equipment including lightning protection systems and commissioning of the First and Second Batches, each consisting of twenty-five (25) lighthouses, worth P14,452,870.63 and 20,142,729.05, respectively.

In the 2005 audit on DOTC, COA said the suppliers had been notified in writing about all defective equipment and abnormalities noted in some lighthouses and were asked for replacement.

Insufficient budget

In the 2008 General Appropriations Act, the office of the secretary of the DOTC allotted under operations of “Protection of Philippine Coast” a total of P1,809,623,000 — P1,161,669,000 for personal services, P622,106,000 for MOOE and P25,848,000 for capital outlay. Another P400,000 in MOOE was allotted under “support for operations.”

The Coast Guard budget falls under the DOTC’s Office of the Secretary under “support to operations” and “operations.”

The Coast Guard budget usually increases through supplemental budgets and subsidies, says COA.

The fact that there is no specific line item for the Coast Guard (unlike other DOTC offices such as the Maritime Industry Authority or the National Telecommunications Commission) seems to show that the agency is in the lower rung of the government’s list of priorities.

“Kulang talaga,” Balilo said, lamenting the Coast Guard resources. “Hindi kami makakapag-perform what is required of us because we lack the facilities, personnel and equipment.”

A DBM source said the DOTC secretary is the one seeking ODA loans or grants to augment Coast Guard resources.

In 2007, the Coast Guard received a total allotment of P1.93 billion, based on COA reports.

Of its P1.92 billion expenses that year, P1.37 billion or almost 72 percent was spent on salaries and wages of its 4,000 personnel while P545 million or 28 percent was paid out for maintenance and other operating expenses.

The allotments have actually increased: In 2006, The Coast Guard received P1.82 billion and P1.33 billion in 2005. - GMA News Research

RS

Satellite View Of Cloud Tops Might Warn Of Storms

Satellite View Of Cloud Tops Might Warn Of Storms

ScienceDaily (July 11, 2008) — For three years, a new way to use data collected by NOAA weather satellites has been giving North Alabama short-term warnings of "pop-up" thunderstorms.

Developed by scientists at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, this new computer program is now spreading to other parts of the U.S. and the world. Later this summer a version of the UAHuntsville weather program will begin forecasting storms throughout Central America, Southern Mexico and the Dominican Republic.

The UAHuntsville Satellite Convection AnalySis & Tracking System (SATCASTS) monitors cumulus clouds as they develop, move and grow through time, according to the person who brainstormed the idea behind the program, Dr. John Mecikalski, an assistant professor of atmospheric science at UAHuntsville.

The program uses data from NOAA’s GOES weather satellites to provide 15-minute to one hour warnings of local thunderstorms. This is the first time forecasters anywhere have had a tool to forecast storms that develop locally. This differs from Doppler radar, which only tracks rain after it starts to fall.

"The radar tells you what's happening, but not what's going to happen," said Wayne MacKenzie, a research associate in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center and a member of the SATCASTS development team.

Operated by UAHuntsville scientists for the National Weather Service forecast office in Huntsville for about three years, SATCASTS has been accurate in its storm forecasts between 65 and 75 percent of the time. It has successfully identified hazards generated by thunderstorms, including lightning, hail, high wind, flash floods and turbulence.

Mecikalski got the idea for SATCASTS in 2001, when he was affiliated with NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies. He was looking for a way to determine which of the thousands of cumulus clouds present on any given summer afternoon will become thunderstorms. (One percent or less of clouds develop into rain clouds.) He has continued his research since joining the faculty at UAHuntsville in January 2004.

Using data from the GOES visible and infrared sensors, SATCASTS tracks changes in both cloud temperature (height) and water vapor. This data is updated every 15 minutes.

The UAHuntsville team has determined that one of the most important factors in predicting thunderstorms is temperature change. If the top of a cloud cools by 4 C (about 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) or more in 15 minutes, that means the cloud is growing quickly and there is a growing probability of rain beginning within 30 minutes to an hour. A 4 C drop in temperature typically means a cloud top has climbed between 1/4 to 1/3 of a kilometer.

Based on its success in the Huntsville forecast office, scientists at UAHuntsville are working with the National Weather Service to transition SATCASTS into the storm prediction systems in forecast offices in Birmingham, AL, and Nashville, TN, as well as both Melbourne and Miami, FL.

The UAHuntsville team is also working with NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to test SATCASTS' possible utility in aviation and air traffic control. The system is being tested at the FAA’s New York City air traffic control center. If successful, SATCASTS might be used worldwide to warn pilots of storms, turbulence and other weather threats before they occur.

Other organizations evaluating the operational implementation of the SATCASTS algorithm include the European Meteorological Satellite agency and the South African Weather Service. Discussions are also under way to bring SATCASTS capabilities to East Africa.

While SATCASTS joins a sophisticated and extensive network of weather monitoring systems in the U.S., it is expected to have special value in regions where storm forecasting and monitoring have been limited or non-existent. The system is relatively inexpensive to install and operate, since it uses freely distributed weather data from existing satellite sensors.

NOAA-funded research at UAHuntsville will focus on expanding SATCASTS' capabilities. In areas where Doppler radar networks do not exist, SATCASTS might be used in the future to track frontal storm systems and provide severe weather warnings that are not presently available, Mecikalski said.

"This makes SATCASTS and satellite-based rainfall predictions very relevant in many developing countries, when ground-based radar is absent but high quality satellite data are in place."

The UAHuntsville SATCASTS team includes Mecikalski, two other scientists and three graduate students. The project has been supported by more than $1 million in funding from NOAA, NASA and the FAA.

Research on improving SATCASTS is ongoing and is expected to continue for at least five years. New areas of research include 30-to-90-minute lightning and flash flood forecasts.

The UAHuntsville team is also working on a next generation SATCASTS, which will take advantage of the improved sensing systems that will be available when NOAA launches it GOES-R series of satellites beginning in 2016. Sensors on those satellites will collect data in more channels, more often and at higher resolution.

WEATHER NOTE

NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration Poised to Respond as Hurricane Season Starts

Washington, DC (2 July 2008): With the arrival of hurricane season, NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) is prepared to respond quickly to hazardous material spill incidents resulting from severe storm events. OR&R scientists work with federal, state and local agencies to provide scientific support and assistance before, during and after hurricanes strike.

"NOAA, through the Office of Response and Restoration, is part of the multi-agency response team providing oil spill trajectories and environmental data so that quick decisions can be made on where to collect oil and what measures can be taken to protect critical environmental resources" says Dave Westerholm, director of NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration. "The federal and state on-scene coordinators rely on NOAA's ability to provide accurate and timely on-scene scientific support, overflights, meteorological data and modeling."

Located around the country, OR&R's Scientific Support Coordinators work other divisions within NOAA, U.S. Coast Guard and other response organizations by providing on scene coordination and scientific support. The NOAA scientific team assists with spill
response, information management, search and rescue missions, vessel groundings, lost or sunken oil platforms, releases from coastal industrial facilities, and other impacts from hurricanes.

OR&R also addresses longer-term recovery efforts including assessment and removal of hazardous and non-hazardous marine debris, natural resource damage assessment, and restoration of coastal habitats.

"It is important to understand that as a natural resource trustee, NOAA has the added responsibility of assessing any coastal oil or hazardous material impact and developing an appropriate restoration strategy for that area," adds Westerholm. "Assessment and restoration extend well beyond the initial response and cleanup, and often involves all the response agencies and impacted communities."

During the 2005 hurricane season, NOAA OR&R staff responded to multiple storms and staffed nine command posts in four different states. One of these storms was Hurricane Katrina. Even before Hurricane Katrina hit land, OR&R was preparing for its impact, providing critical infrastructure assessments, discussing possible points of impact, and coordinating critical personnel in the region.

OR&R performed overflights to evaluate reports of numerous oil spills and vessel sinkings and provided environmental review to the U.S. Coast Guard to address more than 3,000 stranded or sunken vessels. OR&R is still working today to identify and develop abatement strategies for marine debris that was moved to the coastal waters from this hurricane.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

•Contact NOAA:

NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

MARITIME NOTE

BEST OF gCaptain

Maersk Holyhead and Pequot

.
November 2005 - Two vessels are intending to pass one another during daylight hours, in the calm waters of Lake Maracaibo. They are the LNG carrier M/T Maersk Holyhead and bulk carrier M/V Pequot — large, modern vessels with the latest communications & navigational equipment.

RS

Do garage doors open the door to tornado damage?

Do garage doors open the door to tornado damage?

The garage door is often the first thing to go.

When high winds, especially tornado winds, hit a typical suburban house, the failure of many garage doors to withstand the force can become the first link in a disastrous chain reaction. Minnesota has moved in recent years to require somewhat stronger construction standards for doors, but communities elsewhere have gone further.

Some question whether stronger garage doors are worth the additional cost, since no door can stand up to the full fury of nature.

Last year, the state Department of Labor and Industry required that newly constructed residential garage doors must be able to withstand a 90-mile-per-hour gust for three seconds. The old standard had been 80 mph.

Although the move put Minnesota in line with most noncoastal states, it hardly mandates garage doors be built to stand up to the reality of tornadoes. In Rogers two years ago, a tornado clocked 157 mph. In May's twister in Hugo, winds may have reached 167 mph.

Loren Kohnen, city building inspector in Rogers, saw the problem firsthand. In too many instances, Kohnen said, damage from the September 2006 tornado began when a garage door simply blew off, allowing in a rush of wind that sometimes blew the garage itself into the next house.

"Turned out to be the garage doors were the biggest problem of all," Kohnen said. He bluntly told state officials that "you guys got to do something" about requiring stronger residential garage doors.

The state's response seems inadequate to some.

"They kicked [the standard] up 10 miles per hour, literally," said Peter Kulczyk, a former Minnesota building code official now working for Washington-based International Code Council. That change, he said, is "not significant."

There seems to be little appetite for doing more.

WEATHER NOTE

Buffett's Berkshire Paid to Buy Bonds If Storm Hits

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will collect $224 million from Florida in exchange for an assurance that he'll provide capital to the state if a major hurricane strikes this year.

Berkshire agreed to buy $4 billion in tax-free state bonds should the state's catastrophe program need to raise money after a major storm, said Dennis MacKee, a spokesman for the State Board of Administration, in an interview today.

The deal may erase some of the uncertainty about Florida's ability to raise money after a hurricane. The state sells coverage to homeowners and private companies at below-market rates, and plans to fund cash shortfalls in the bond market. Raising money could be a ``very challenging task,'' Fitch Ratings said in March.

``Given the state of the financial markets today, this addresses a possible need we have to place a pretty substantial bond issue,'' MacKee said. ``We were looking for a liquidity product that would allow us to move quickly after a major storm.''

Fitch said the state's homeowners insurance market could ``effectively collapse'' if a major storm hits. About 25 percent of U.S. coastal property in hurricane-prone areas is in Florida, Fitch said.

Berkshire will have to purchase the debt if the state's fund incurs $25 billion in losses this year, MacKee said. The state predicts a single storm can cause losses of that magnitude once every 32 years, he said. The most-expensive disaster in U.S. history, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, cost the industry $41.1 billion.

6.5 Percent Interest

Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire would collect 6.5 percent annual interest over the 30-year life of the bond, MacKee said. Florida would charge assessments to policyholders in the state to repay the debt.

The Miami Herald reported the transaction earlier today.

Buffett has said Berkshire is prepared to lose as much as $6 billion on a single catastrophe if the company is paid for the risk. Berkshire typically gets about half its profit from insurance. Company spokeswoman Jackie Wilson didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

Berkshire's stock declined about 15 percent in the first half of the year, the worst performance in the period since 1990. After reporting record 2007 earnings of $13.2 billion, the 77- year-old Buffett told shareholders in February that profit margins from insurance will drop this year as prices decline industrywide and claims costs rise.

To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Holm in New York at eholm2@bloomberg.net.

MARITIME NOTE

GPIRB - the smart EPIRB

This is the first of a new generation of emergency beacons. GPIRBs (Global Position Indicating Radio Beacon) combine the latest in GPS and 406MHz EPIRB (Electronic Position Indicating Radio Beacon) technology, and add extraordinary precision to your emergency distress signal. If you are a boater who operates offshore or in the Great Lakes, this could be the best "life insurance" policy you could own.

The GPIRB, with its built in GPS, determines and broadcasts its own location. This shortens the time required to get an accurate fix on the beacon location and saving valuable time at the beginning of an SAR (Search And Rescue) operation.

The unit comes with a float-free bracket that releases it if it is submersed as in a sinking. There is a manual mode to turn the unit on manually and a test mode which should be used on a frequent basis to test the operation. It has a minimum 48 hours operating life, 8-channel internal GPS and comes with a lithium battery.

What's the difference between 406MHz EPIRBs and the new GPIRB?

The position of a 406 MHz EPIRB is determined by calculations using the Doppler shift in the beacon's distress signal which occurs as satellites approach and recede in overhead orbits. The accuracy of the calculations is determined by the number of signal bursts received by the satellites. Accuracy is enhanced when a satellite passes directly overhead, because the satellite receives the greatest number of signal bursts. The only real problem with the system is that it takes time for an accurate fix to be acquired.

In contrast, the new GPIRB takes an active role in determining its own position. When activated, its internal GPS finds its own position, just like an onboard GPS. Having located itself, it broadcasts its identity and position on 406MHz. It will then shut down for 20 minutes to conserve power, and repeat the process of locating itself and rebroadcasting. It will continue to update its position every 20 minutes as long as it is active. The advantage of a GPIRB is that an accurate fix is almost instantly available. Its frequent update allows rescuers to compute drift accurately, and direct SAR teams directly to you -- difficult to do with the time delays of an EPIRB.

Related Articles:

EPIRBs - Safety at Sea by Chief Warrant Officer Jim Krzenski, Commanding Officer, U.S.C.G. Station Fort Pierce, FL
EPIRBs - Life Insurance at Sea

RS

Why More Men Die in Floods

Why More Men Die in Floods

In the floods that have swamped the U.S. this month, at least 12 people have been killed. Nine of them were men: in Iowa, three men, ages 33, 35 and 50, died in the floods; three middle-aged men perished in Indiana; Wisconsin, West Virginia and Minnesota lost one man each.

The ratio, it turns out, is typical for storms. Men are more likely than women to die in floods, year after year, all over the country. A study of U.S. thunderstorm-related deaths from 1994 to 2000 found that men were more than twice as likely to die than women. Of the 1,442 fatalities, 70% were men, according to research by Thomas Songer at the University of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public Health. Most of the deaths happened outside the home during flash floods or lightning strikes. That is partly because men are more likely to be outside for their jobs. But men are also more likely to take risks of all kinds — which can be a fatally bad idea in ugly weather.

Most storm deaths happen the same way: people drown when they try to drive or walk through floodwater. The brain is not very good at assessing the depth and strength of water on a road. Water can hide dips and valleys, making the path look smooth and shallow when it is not. And the brain is even worse at assessing the risk of anything that appears to be familiar or within control — like driving a car in the rain. To add to the general cognitive confusion, flash floods can happen quickly, without any warning at all.

Lightning is another very common, very deadly — and very underappreciated — natural hazard. Men are more likely to die from lightning partly because, in addition to their riskier occupations and behaviors, they are more likely to be outside playing or watching sports, Songer found.

On June 15, a 43-year-old Wisconsin man drove around ROAD CLOSED signs and hit a washout, according to news reports. He was pronounced dead at the scene. In Indiana, two men died in separate incidents this month after their cars were swept away — and they tried to walk home.

Of the 12 deaths across the country this summer, eight involved people driving in floodwaters. Two of those victims were women. (The total number of flood deaths this season will probably turn out to be higher than 12, but the Federal Government does not yet have complete figures. This number was compiled by TIME through interviews with county emergency managers as well as a review of local media reports. It does not include tornado deaths.)

Floods are extremely common all over the country and getting more common in many places. The good news is that we understand how to reduce the odds of dying in one. So what can men (and women) do to override their brain's blind spots? The simplest solution is to stay inside. But if you do find yourself out in flood conditions, here are some survival strategies:

— Don't be deceived by water that looks shallow. Six inches (15 cm) of water will reach the bottom of most cars and can cause stalling and loss of control, according to FEMA. A foot of water will float many cars, and two feet of moving water can carry away most vehicles — including SUVs and pickup trucks. In other words, if you can turn around, do it.

— If floodwaters do rise around your car, leave the car and move to higher ground ...

— ... Unless you don't know the depth of the water or if you are in moving water. In those cases, stay in the car and wait for help.

— If you must walk through water, walk where the water is not moving. Even ankle-high water, if it is moving, can make you fall. Use a stick to check the depth and firmness of the ground in front of you.

— If you do get swept into a fast current, don't fight it, according to the U.S. Army Survival Manual. In fast, shallow water, swim on your back, feet first. Keep your feet up to avoid hitting debris or getting pulled under.

Senior writer Amanda Ripley is the author of The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes [EM] and Why, a new book about human behavior in disasters

LEGISLATIVE ALERT!!!

While this might not be the answer all inclusive to the problem of severe weather preparedness. It is one heck of a good start. We here are Robin Storm ask all of our readers to contact their US Senator's in support of CJ's Law.

Weather radio bill stalls in Senate

Aim is aiding those in mobile homes

By Doug Abrahms
Gannett News Service

WASHINGTON -- A bill proposed by Indiana lawmakers to require emergency weather radios in new manufactured housing has languished in the Senate for months while nearly half of this year's tornado deaths have been in mobile homes.

Fifty-two people living in mobile homes died in tornadoes this year in Alabama, Tennessee, Indiana and six other states, according to the National Weather Service. That was 44 percent of all tornado fatalities, a higher percentage than a generation ago, said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the weather service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

This year's high rate was partially due to more people living in mobile homes, he said.

The number of mobile homes in the country has grown from 4.6 million in 1980 to 8.8 million in 2006, according to the Census Bureau.

Trying to reduce these deaths, Rep. Brad Ellsworth of Indiana introduced legislation to require manufacturers to add weather radios to all new mobile homes. The cost is estimated at less than $35 per radio, he said.

Ellsworth was Vanderburgh County sheriff in 2005 when a tornado with winds of more than 136 mph tore through the area, killing 25 people.

"If it saves one life, we're better for it," he said.

The House passed his bill in October, but Ellsworth said he's a little frustrated by slow progress in the Senate.

Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., offered a similar bill in March that was sent to the banking committee, which has been busy with legislation to deal with the rising number of home foreclosures.

The Senate has only a few months left in this session, given an August recess and time off for fall campaigning.

The Manufactured Housing Institute, which represents makers of mobile homes, opposes the legislation because it singles out one type of housing.

"It's really not the structure you're in but where it's located," said Brian Cooney, the group's senior vice president. "If you're in the path of a tornado, it's really going to flatten everything."

The federal government is implementing a system that will alert people to emergencies via cell phones, TVs and other devices that will provide information to everyone, including people living in mobile homes, he said.

Most people get their weather information from TV, said Mike Smith, who founded Weatherdata, a private forecasting company in Wichita, Kan.

"But a television doesn't turn itself on automatically when a tornado happens," counters Bruce Thomas, chief meteorologist and spokesman for Midland Radio Corp., the nation's largest maker of weather radios.

The radio devices sound a tone when notified by a National Weather Service signal that a tornado or other emergency is possible in a specific county, he said. The company sold tens of thousands of weather radios this year in Huntsville, Ala., after tornadoes killed five people in the area in February, he said.

"I'll say unequivocally there will be lives saved if you put weather radios in mobile homes," Carbin said. "People will get the alert and hopefully take the action to get out of harm's way."

Kathryn Martin also is convinced the radios will save lives. She lost her 2-year-old son, C.J., in 2005 when a tornado in Evansville hit his great-grandmother's mobile home, where he was sleeping.

"We didn't know (weather radios) existed before the tornado," she said.

Martin persuaded Indiana lawmakers to pass a bill last year that requires new mobile homes installed in the state to have weather radios.

She also started CJ's Bus, a mobile service that tries to entertain and distract children in the immediate aftermath of disasters. In the past two years, CJ's Bus has given away more than 300 weather radios that were donated by manufacturers.

"It's frustrating for me to see kids dying and parents dying all because they didn't have a weather radio," she said.

WEATHER NOTE

Local officials being cautious as hurricane likelihood increases

One month into the 2008 hurricane season, Iredell County residents cannot be too prepared in the event of an emergency situation.

Although the region’s most recent and disastrous storm was 1989’s Hurricane Hugo, another hurricane hitting the South Carolina coast and moving inland could potentially strike the Mooresville area, said David Martin, Iredell County’s Emergency Management coordinator and emergency communications director.

“Most of the time, what you deal with with inland hurricanes is flooding,” said Martin. “We get a lot of water in a short period time.”

“It’s very rare that you’d have an inland hurricane that’s going to come through with the force that Hugo came through with.”

But as the hurricane season continues, signs are piling up that the tropical Atlantic Ocean, cradle of hurricanes during the August and September height of the season, could be a more fertile breeding ground than normal in coming months.

Tropical waves emerging from Africa have been stronger in this early season than last year, and Atlantic Ocean water temperatures between Africa and the Caribbean Sea ran higher than normal through June. Water temperatures in much of the tropical Atlantic last month were about 1 degree above normal.

Those elements are important because warm water becomes fuel for hurricanes. Water temperatures will continue to rise through the September heart of the season.

Tropical waves are the seeds of storms that form moving west across the Atlantic. If those are stronger than normal, they are more likely to survive to become storms.

Martin, who has heard that this summer will provide an active hurricane season, had several tips for Iredell County residents if a hurricane were to move inland and strike the region.

“One of the things with any type of disaster you’re looking at is trying to get 72 hours worth of stuff,” Martin suggested, noting that having enough food and water – as well as medications – for three days is important in an emergency situation.

He also advised people to purchase a manual can opener because having canned food will require a manual opener if the electricity fails.

“Another thing people don’t think about is cash,” said Martin. Having cash is vital, especially if power is out and ATMs are down.

If the region is expecting a storm like Hugo, with high winds, Martin recommended securing anything that is outside, including furniture and grills.
“A lot of the time that’s where your injuries come from is flying debris.”
Martin mentioned stocking up on batteries and alternative light sources, such as flashlights or candles, in case the electricity is out for a period of time.
“I think if you had all that kind of stuff, you could probably weather it pretty good.”

In preparing for a storm, Martin suggested keeping an eye on the weather, especially for those living in low-lying areas susceptible to flooding. A weather radio – which can be purchased from Iredell County Emergency Management for $30 or at several retail locations – can alert individuals of weather-related events that may be approaching.

“For $30, you have a lot of security,” said Martin, who highly recommends making this preventative purchase.

“Preparedness is the key. Being ready for it and having a way to know it’s coming.”

Many people, noted Martin, fail to think of their homeowner’s insurance when preparing for a natural disaster. He said those primarily living in flood zones need to be aware of their policy and whether their home is covered by homeowner’s insurance or flood insurance.

“If a hurricane hits the North Carolina coast, the biggest thing we’re going to get is rain,” said Martin, noting that Emergency Management is prepared in the event of a summer hurricane.

Aside from their mitigation efforts – such as the sale of the weather radios – and planning efforts, Emergency Management has “a debris management contract already in place” covering Iredell County, Martin added.

During June and much of July, most storms form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Those areas have proved barren so far.

Wind circling a low pressure area over the eastern United States most of June created winds from the west over the Gulf and Caribbean, which have dampened storm chances.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a season with 12 to 16 named storms with six to nine becoming hurricanes. Of those, three to five could become storms of Category 3 or stronger.
For more information about how to prepare for a hurricane in Iredell County and throughout North Carolina, visit www.iredelleoc.com.

Neil Johnson of Media General News Service contributed this article.

MARITIME NOTE

‘Princess’ had deficient stabilizer, says maritime official

MANILA, Philippines -- (UPDATE) MV Princess of the Stars may have been “unstable” when it sailed because two of its ballast compartments were empty, a flaw that could have led to its sinking, a maritime official said Thursday.

Commodore Amado Romillo, member of the Board of Marine Inquiry investigating the sinking of Sulpicio Lines Inc.’s inter-island ferry, said that based on shipping firm’s report, two of the four ballast compartments of the ill-fated ferry were empty when it sailed.

He said empty compartments made the ship “unstable” and could have caused it to capsize when big waves battered it after sailing into the eye of Typhoon Frank (international codename: Fengshen) on June 21.

"It's very obvious the ship sailed without the proper quantity of ballast," said Romillo, a private sector representative to the BMI.

He questioned the stability of the Princess of the Stars after noting that data submitted by SLI to the board showed that the ship was not holding the full ballast tanks that he said were supposed to serve as its permanent ballast.

Ballast tanks are used to stabilize the ship and are filled with or emptied of water as needed.

Romillo’s comment at the ongoing investigation of the sinking did not sit well with Sulpicio lawyer Arthur Lim, who appealed to the BMI to suspend the announcement of its "tentative, individual findings."

Lim said Sulpicio did not want to foster an environment that would encourage the clamor for the government to take over the shipping company.

Benjamin Eugenio, Sulpicio’s port captain in Manila, said some ballast tanks had to be emptied to accommodate the cargo and ensure the ship's stability.

But Romillo said the ballast was needed for continued stability, regardless of the cargo on board.

"If they discharge ballast in place of cargo, you change the center of gravity,” Romillo said. “Then you can't consider the vessel stable. Thereby, you are risking the lives of passengers,"

Eugenio replied that selected tanks were full, but added that he did not have all the data about the ballast tanks with him. He assured the BMI that the data would be submitted soon.

Romillo, who showed Eugenio pictures of the upturned ship published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, and cited a Philippine Coast Guard report to him, said the vessel was dead in the water and was drifting after it capsized.

The photos showed a portion of the ship's bow protruding from the sea off Sibuyan Island.

According to Romillo, buoyancy keeps a ship afloat, and this buoyancy could have been caused by the air in the empty ballast tanks.

{split[Page 2]}

"A ship will sink if there is continued ingress of water. But if there's enough air left on board, that will keep the ship afloat even though she capsized," he said.

He further said this could mean that the ballast tanks of the ill-fated vessel could have been empty when it sailed.

"What's keeping her afloat is her empty ballast tanks. The reason the stern is lower is because of the cargo," he said.

He also said the ballast should be calculated while the ship was at port, and not while at sea because such practice would be dangerous.

Romillo also said that because of the high center of gravity of the cargo, it appeared there was not enough weight down below, and when strong waves hit the ship it listed.

If the ship had more weight below, it could have uprighted itself when hit by the waves, he added.

Romillo further said there were "lapses in the management of the ship."

He pointed out that the ship had only one form of communication with the ports, which was the single side band radio. There were also certain hours when no one was manning the radio communication. Thus, he said, the vessel was unable to receive an important weather bulletin at 10 p.m. on Friday.

But Lim objected to the airing of Romillo's views.

He countered the board member's statement and said that as far as he knew, the vessel may not necessarily floating.

"Maybe the vessel is afloat because is it resting on something, not because it is floating," he said.

He also asked the board to suspend judgment on the ballast tanks and the stability of the ship considering that the vessel would be refloated.

"It's purely speculative even when backed up by scientific theory," he said. "I don't think it will be fair to make conclusions that certain things were done or not done."

He also asked the board to consider that the vessel "went right smack in the eye of typhoon" and that the incident was "very extraordinary."

Lim noted that there has been talk about government's takeover of Sulpicio, and said he did not want the board member's view to persuade people to support the idea of a state takeover.

He said Romillo's statement about the ship was a "rhetorical observation."

"So if media will pick that up, everybody in the country will be agitating for the closure of Sulpicio. I don't believe the board should be the instrument of a sinister plan anyone might have," he said.

BMI chair Rear Admiral Ramon Liwag assured Lim that the board would conduct its investigation fairly.

In a separate interview, Engineer Nelson P. Ramirez, president of the United Filipino Seafarers, said it was also possible that the cargoes on board the 23000-ton vessel were not properly secured, causing them to be dislodged when big waves hit the ship.

The Princes of the Stars went down with over 800 passengers and crew on board. Only 57 have been found alive.

( www.inquirer.net )

RS

U.S. crop damage from weather tops $8 billion

U.S. crop damage from weather tops $8 billion

From the worst floods in the Midwest grain belt in 15 years to drought in California, damage to crops from inclement weather has topped $8 billion so far this year, the largest U.S. farm group said on Wednesday.

The damage could rise or contract, depending on weather conditions for the rest of the growing season in the United States, the world's top exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat, the American Farm Bureau Federation said.

The flood damage in the Midwest over the past two weeks has lifted prices for U.S. corn, used for food, renewable fuel ethanol and animal feed, to a record high above $7 a bushel, up about 85 percent since the end of 2006 as of Wednesday.

The AFBF said leading farm state Iowa accounted for about half of the damage.

"Wet weather and flooding create issues, as farmers are unable to plant their crops," said AFBF senior economist Terry Francl. "The crops they do plant do not sprout and grow, resulting in few acres harvest."

"Additionally, the difficult growing conditions greatly reduce the yield of the crop that is harvested," he added.

Francl said he expected Iowa corn yields could fall by 16 percent this year and that 1.5 million to 2 million acres of corn and soybeans in the state that farmers intended to plant this spring will likely remain fallow.

AFBF said this would result in an estimated loss of $4 billion to Iowa's crops, and that other states taking a hit from excessive wet weather and flooding are Illinois with $1.3 billion, Missouri $900 million, Indiana $500 million and Nebraska $500 million.

It said an additional $1 billion in losses were expected in other states where conditions remained wet.

The U.S. Agriculture Department will provide some insight into the extent of crop damage from the floods when it issues its report Monday on how many acres farmers will plant with major crops, including corn and soy, this year.

The AFBF said some states were experiencing dry weather, with drought taking a toll in several Western and Southeastern states. It said northern California battled the driest spring in its history, and as a whole the state suffered $500 million in estimated damage.

AFBF said on a national basis, the corn yield is likely to decline some eight to 10 bushels per acre from the 2008 trend line, mostly due to inclement weather.

The national soybean average yield is also likely to be down one to two bushels per acre from the current U.S. Agriculture Department projection of 42 bushels per acre.

AFBF said the damage estimate is based on the assumption that weather conditions will be normal for the remainder of the growing season, adding that varying weather conditions later in the season could cause the estimate to grow or contract.

(Reporting by K.T. Arasu, editing by Matthew Lewis)

WEATHER NOTE

Annual Severe Weather Report Summary
2008

All Reports | Tornadoes | Wind Damage | Large Hail

'Hurricane Freddy' drilled water management employees during exercise

Palm Beach Post Staff Report

Thursday, June 26, 2008

WEST PALM BEACH — South Florida Water Management District employees participated in a hurricane drill at the emergency operations center Thursday morning.

The South Florida Water Management District is conducted a full-scale, district-wide exercise designed to demonstrate and evaluate the district's Emergency Operations Center field response and recovery activities in the event of a catastrophic hurricane affecting South Florida.

Trained District staff practiced emergency management and flood-control procedures by responding to "Hurricane Freddy," a simulated catastrophic Category 5 hurricane that impacted South Florida.

The exercise will assess the district's ability to respond to numerous hurricane-related incidents and demands on the flood-control system.

NYC OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (OEM) CONDUCTS HURRICANE DRILL

Regional Hurricane Preparedness Exercise Features Deployment of Emergency Supply Stockpile and Shelter Setup

The New York City Office of Emergency Management (OEM) Commissioner today announced the successful completion of HURREX 2008, a multi-agency field exercise to test the deployment of the City’s emergency supply stockpile and the setup of shelters.

During the two-day exercise, held on May 31st and June 1st, 24 pallets from the City’s emergency stockpile were delivered to IS 187 in Brooklyn, where more than 100 staff members from City agencies, the American Red Cross (ARC) and OEM’s Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) set up a shelter capable of providing housing and essential supplies for up to 500 people for four days. The supplies included cots, blankets, hygiene and medical kits, baby food and diapers, pet supplies and bottled water. In addition to setting up the shelter, staff members received training in five areas of shelter management: Evacuation Center Operations, Solar System Operations, Hurricane Shelter Administration, Hurricane Shelter Operations and Evacuation Center Administration/Hurricane Shelter Logistics.

“New York City has one of the most robust coastal storm plans in the country and this weekend we put yet another component of our plan to the test,” said OEM Commissioner Joseph Bruno. “Drills like HURREX help ensure the City is ready if we ever have to face the real thing.”

In a major coastal storm, such as a category 3 or 4 hurricane, as many as 2.3 million people would need to evacuate coastal areas and up to 600,000 people would require temporary shelter. To meet those needs OEM has developed a comprehensive Coastal Storm Plan that includes detailed procedures for evacuating and sheltering residents. The City’s shelter system consists of 65 evacuation centers and up to 509 hurricane shelters, including eight special medical needs shelters. To supply and staff the shelter system, OEM maintains an emergency stockpile of essential supplies and a database of nearly 25,000 City employees who would be called upon to manage evacuation centers and emergency shelters.

City officials will evaluate the exercise and study the response and decisions made by the participants for future training in New York City and in other jurisdictions. HURREX was funded by SEMO and a contribution from American International Group, Inc. (AIG).

“As an insurance company with a clear understanding of the importance of emergency preparedness and risk mitigation, AIG is proud to support the New York City Office of Emergency Management’s HURREX coastal storm exercise,” said Ned Cloonan, AIG Vice President for International & Corporate Affairs. “We value our relationship with OEM and look forward to continuing to work with them as they test and refine New York City’s preparedness plans and emergency response protocols.”

Hurricane Season in the United States begins June 1 and ends November 30. HURREX took place on the final day of National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2008, which ran from May 25 through May 31.

HURREX 2008 is part of the City's continuing efforts to test and refine its Coastal Storm Plan. The exercise was designed specifically to test the deployment of supplies from the City’s emergency stockpile and staff from the city’s volunteer database, and to set up a simulated emergency shelter.

In 2006, OEM held three drills that focused on other aspects of the Coastal Storm Plan. In October 2006, more than 800 evacuees were evaluated and transported from an evacuation center to two shelter locations. In June 2006, OEM held a tabletop exercise involving more than 60 City, state and federal agencies, non-profit organizations and private sector partners that traced the movement of a hurricane from its initial development to the decision to evacuate portions of the city. And, in a second tabletop exercise held in July 2006, players focused on the evacuation of special needs populations from healthcare facilities.

Agencies that participated in HURREX include:

* American Red Cross in Greater NY
* NYC Administration for Children’s Services
* NYC Community Emergency Response Teams
* NYC Department for the Aging
* NYC Department for Citywide Administrative Services
* NYC Department of Education
* NYC Department of Environmental Protection
* NYC Department of Finance
* NYC Department of Homeless Services
* NYC Department of Information Technology and Telecommunications
* NYC Department of Parks and Recreation
* NYC Department of Housing Preservation and Development
* NYC Fire Department
* NYC Housing Authority
* NYC Human Resource Administration
* NYC Law Department
* NYC Mayor’s Office
* NYC Office of Emergency Management
* NYC Police Department

In addition to the HURREX shelter exercise, the City of New York is participating in a first-of-its-kind regional exercise hosted by the New York State Emergency Management Office (SEMO). SEMO’s Empire Express Hurricane Exercise will activate state and local coastal storm plans in preparation for a direct hit by a simulated hurricane and will focus on three critical components of New York’s hurricane response: Emergency Operations Center (EOC) coordination, local operations and healthcare facility evacuations.

The regional exercise kicked off Friday, May 31, 2008 with a call between OEM, SEMO, the National Weather Service and Nassau Suffolk and Westchester counties. Over the weekend, OEM participated in calls with the Regional Evacuation Liaison Team (RELT), a group of city and county executives that would ensure a coordinated regional evacuation during a major hurricane. Today, the exercise continued with a simulated activation of OEM’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC). The activation simulated the decision making and information gathering activities that would be taking place if a Category 2 hurricane was approaching New York City. With the simulated hurricane scheduled to make landfall Tuesday at 8 pm, players worked to establish a timeline for the evacuation of healthcare and nursing home facilities and a timeline for evacuating the general population from areas that would be impacted by storm surge. Throughout the exercise, OEM will simulate the activities that would occur in an actual event. On Wednesday, the exercise will focus on regional recovery efforts. The SEMO exercise concludes in Albany on Thursday with a meeting where participants will examine the decisions made during the exercise and assess the effectiveness of the regions costal storm plans.

CONTACT: Andrew Troisi / Chris Gilbride (718) 422-4888

Safety tips can prevent disaster when tornadoes hit

Recently Greeley and Weld County experienced one of nature's most violent storms, a tornado. Some tornadoes are clearly visible, while rain or nearby low-hanging clouds obscure others. Occasionally, tornadoes develop so rapidly that little, if any, advance warning is possible. The City of Greeley and Union Colony Fire Rescue's Office of Emergency Management are currently in the process of exploring options for a tornado advanced warning and mass notification system. These options include sirens/public address systems, text messaging to cell phones and e-mail alerts. In the absence of such a system being in place, there are things residents can do to be prepared for another one of these devastating events.

One of the best ways to keep yourself appraised and imminent dangerous weather is to Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or to commercial radio or television newscasts for the latest information. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, is the federal agency that monitors weather world wide and issues regular "watches" and "warnings" on dangerous weather in specific locations. A "weather" radio can be purchased at various local retail stores that is designed to specifically receive these "watches" and "warnings" in the radio users specific geographic vicinity.

So, what's the difference between a "watch" and a "warning"? A tornado watch means tornadoes are possible. Remain alert for approaching storms. Watch the sky and stay tuned to a NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information. A tornado warning means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. Take shelter immediately.

Should you find yourself in the path of an approaching tornado, remember the following:

If in a structure (e.g. residence, small building, school, nursing home, hospital, factory, shopping center, high-rise building)--Go to a pre-designated shelter area such as a safe room, basement, storm cellar, or the lowest building level. If there is no basement, go to the center of an interior room on the lowest level (closet, interior hallway) away from corners, windows, doors, and outside walls. Put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. Get under a sturdy table and use your arms to protect your head and neck. Do not open windows.

If in a vehicle, trailer, or mobile home--Get out immediately and go to the lowest floor of a sturdy, nearby building or a storm shelter. Mobile homes, even if tied down, offer little protection from tornadoes

If outside with no shelter, lie flat in a nearby ditch or depression and cover your head with your hands. Be aware of the potential for flooding. Do not get under an overpass or bridge. You are safer in a low, flat location. Never try to outrun a tornado in urban or congested areas in a car or truck. Instead, leave the vehicle immediately for safe shelter.

Watch out for flying debris. Flying debris from tornadoes causes most fatalities and injuries.

There is little, if anything that can be done to totally eliminate property damage from one of these violent storms. However, with planning, preparation, and awareness, there is much that can be done to minimize injuries to citizens and even save lives.

Dale Lyman, CFPS, is division chief and fire marshal for the Union Colony Fire Rescue Authority in Greeley.

Never try and out run a supercell.....



MARITIME NOTE

Probers told: 2 of ship’s ballast tanks empty

MANILA, Philippines—The MV Princess of the Stars may have been unstable when it sailed, thus dooming it to sink and capsize after being battered by big waves, a member of the Board of Marine Inquiry (BMI) theorized Thursday.

The statements were aired by Commodore Amado Romillo, a representative of the private sector, at the ongoing investigation of the sinking.

According to Romillo, two of the four ballast tanks were empty, and two were filled. “It’s very obvious the ship sailed without the proper quantity of ballast,” he said.

Romillo’s testimony did not sit well with Sulpicio Lines Inc. lawyer Arthur Lim, who appealed to the BMI to suspend the announcement of its “tentative, individual findings.”

Lim said the company did not want to foster an environment that would encourage the clamor for the government to take over the shipping company.

The BMI chair, Rear Adm. Ramon Liwag, assured Lim that the board would conduct its investigation fairly.

Romillo questioned the stability of the Princess of the Stars after noting that data submitted by the company to the board showed that the ship was not holding the full ballast tanks that he said were supposed to serve as its permanent ballast.

Ballast tanks are used to stabilize the ship and are filled with or emptied of water as needed.

Romillo also cited “lapses in the management” of the Princess of the Stars.

He said the ship had only one form of communication—the single sideband radio—with the ports, and that there were certain hours when no one was manning the radio communication.

Thus, he said, the ship was unable to receive an important weather bulletin at 10 p.m. on June 20, the day it set sail.

Center of gravity

The Princess of the Stars sank at the height of Typhoon “Frank&#